Ultra-Nationalist Folly: How Much More Can Armenia Take?

Much of what happens seems inevitable in retrospect, but not the martyrdom of our four thousand sons. The 44-Day War has shaken delusional certitudes about Armenia’s foreign policy. Now, too late, it is easy to recognize the errors that might have been averted. They include: Over-estimating the military capacity of the Republic of Armenia; Badly under-estimating the military capacity and battle-readiness of the Republic of Azerbaijan; Discounting Erdogan’s willingness to challenge Moscow by intervening directly in the armed conflict; Disregarding Armenia’s diplomatic isolation and vastly exaggerating-or just hallucinating-the willingness of the West to intervene on Armenia’s behalf; Dismissing, or ignoring entirely, the unanimous international commitment to the Madrid Principles, notably the first principle, “return of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabagh to Azerbaijani control,” as a prelude to discussing autonomy or self-determination for the Armenians of Artsakh / Nagorno Karabagh; Brushing off Moscow’s numerous and insistent reminders to Yerevan that security provisions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) apply, in letter and in spirit, only to the U.N.- recognized territory of the Republic of Armenia, and not to Artsakh / Nagorno Karabagh. To read the full story, check out the article on Hetq.



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